Revival Duration and Determinants of ASEAN Machinery Trade During COVID-19 Pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

This study performs survival analysis to evaluate duration of revived and new machinery import and the hazard ratios (HRs) of covariates related to the global financial crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The results indicate that large tariff margins decreased the possibility of disruption (HR 0.8024) to Japanese import from ASEAN countries after revived during the COVID-19 pandemic and increased the possibility of disruption (HR 1.0338) to Chinese import from ASEAN countries of new import during the GFC.