Lagged meteorological impacts on COVID-19 incidence among high-risk counties in the United States-a spatiotemporal analysis.
J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol
; 32(5): 774-781, 2022 09.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2254844
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The associations between meteorological factors and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been discussed globally; however, because of short study periods, the lack of considering lagged effects, and different study areas, results from the literature were diverse and even contradictory.OBJECTIVE:
The primary purpose of this study is to conduct more reliable research to evaluate the lagged meteorological impacts on COVID-19 incidence by considering a relatively long study period and diversified high-risk areas in the United States.METHODS:
This study adopted the distributed lagged nonlinear model with a spatial function to analyze COVID-19 incidence predicted by multiple meteorological measures from March to October of 2020 across 203 high-risk counties in the United States. The estimated spatial function was further smoothed within the entire continental United States by the biharmonic spline interpolation.RESULTS:
Our findings suggest that the maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, and precipitation were the best meteorological predictors. Most significantly positive associations were found from 3 to 11 lagged days in lower levels of each selected meteorological factor. In particular, a significantly positive association appeared in minimum relative humidity higher than 88.36% at 5-day lag. The spatial analysis also shows excessive risks in the north-central United States.SIGNIFICANCE:
The research findings can contribute to the implementation of early warning surveillance of COVID-19 by using weather forecasting for up to two weeks in high-risk counties.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
/
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol
Journal subject:
Epidemiology
/
Environmental Health
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41370-021-00356-y
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