Delay dynamics of pandemic disease COVID-19 with compartmental mathematical modeling

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose a compartmental epidemic model which consists of four divisions named as non-quarantined susceptible population (Sn), quarantined susceptible population (Sq), infected population (I), and recovered or immune population (R) to analyze the dynamics of pandemic disease COVID19 introducing a time delay. We analytically calculate the basic reproduction number of the model to classify epidemic case and endemic case of the pandemic. In order to understand the dynamics of Novel Coronavirus under a time delay, we perform the stability analysis and a Hopfbifurcation analysis of the proposed model as well. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical findingsthat reflect a real scenario of the transmission of COVID-19. © CSP - Cambridge, UK;I&S - Florida, USA, 2023