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Assessing the effectiveness of perimeter lockdowns as a response to epidemics at the urban scale.
de Miguel Arribas, Alfonso; Aleta, Alberto; Moreno, Yamir.
  • de Miguel Arribas A; Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), University of Zaragoza, 50018, Zaragoza, Spain. alfonso.demiguel.arribas@gmail.com.
  • Aleta A; Department of Theoretical Physics, University of Zaragoza, 50018, Zaragoza, Spain. alfonso.demiguel.arribas@gmail.com.
  • Moreno Y; Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), University of Zaragoza, 50018, Zaragoza, Spain.
Sci Rep ; 13(1): 4474, 2023 03 18.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2256581
ABSTRACT
From September 2020 to May 2021 Madrid region (Spain) followed a rather unique non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) by establishing a strategy of perimeter lockdowns (PLs) that banned travels to and from areas satisfying certain epidemiological risk criteria. PLs were pursued to avoid harsher restrictions, but some studies have found that the particular implementation by Madrid authorities was rather ineffective. Based on Madrid's case, we devise a general, minimal framework to investigate the PLs effectiveness by using a data-driven metapopulation epidemiological model of a city, and explore under which circumstances the PLs could be a good NPI. The model is informed with real mobility data from Madrid to contextualize its results, but it can be generalized elsewhere. The lowest lockdown activation threshold [Formula see text] considered (14-day cumulative incidence rate of 20 cases per every [Formula see text] inhabitants) shows a prevalence reduction [Formula see text] with respect to the scenario [Formula see text], more akin to the case of Madrid, and assuming no further mitigation. Only the combination of [Formula see text] and mobility reduction [Formula see text] can avoid PLs for more than [Formula see text] of the system. The combination of low [Formula see text] and strong local transmissibility reduction is key to minimize the impact, but the latter is harder to achieve given that we assume a situation with highly mitigated transmission, resembling the one observed during the second wave of COVID-19 in Madrid. Thus, we conclude that a generalized lockdown is hard to avoid under any realistic setting if only this strategy is applied.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Epidemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-023-31614-8

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Epidemics / COVID-19 Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Europa Language: English Journal: Sci Rep Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41598-023-31614-8