Analysis and prediction of the COVID-19 pandemic in Senegal using the SIR model
Open Journal of Preventive Medicine
; 12(12):302-311, 2022.
Article
in English
| CAB Abstracts | ID: covidwho-2257138
ABSTRACT
In this study, the mathematical SIR model (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (cured and deceased)) was applied to the case of Senegal during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. During this period, from March 1, 2020, to March 30, 2021, the transmission and recovery rates as well as the number of reproduction were calculated and analyzed for the impact of the decisions taken by the Senegalese government. In both waves, the variation of the basic reproduction number as a function of time, with values below one towards the end of each study period, confirms the success of the Senegalese government in controlling the epidemic. The results show that the solution of mandatory mask-wearing is the best decision to counter the spread of the disease. Indeed, the mean number of reproduction is 2.11 in the first wave, and the second wave has a lower mean value of 1.23, while the decisions are less restrictive during this latter wave. Also, a short-term prediction model (about 4 months) was validated on the second wave. The validation criteria of this model reveal a good match between the results of the simulated model and the COVID-19 data reported via the Ministry of Health, Solidarity, and Social Action of Senegal.
Other Control Measures [HH700], Prion; Viral; Bacterial and Fungal Pathogens of Humans [VV210], Mathematics and Statistics [ZZ100], coronavirus disease 2019, disease control, disease prevention, disease transmission, facemasks, health protection, human diseases, lungs, mathematical models, pandemics, protective clothing, respiratory diseases, viral diseases, man, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, Senegal, Homo, Hominidae, primates, mammals, vertebrates, Chordata, animals, eukaryotes, ACP Countries, Francophone Africa, Africa, Least Developed Countries, low Human Development Index countries, lower-middle income countries, West Africa, Africa South of Sahara, Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus, Betacoronavirus, Coronavirinae, Coronaviridae, Nidovirales, positive-sense ssRNA Viruses, ssRNA Viruses, RNA Viruses, viruses, SARS-COV-2 variants, lung diseases, subsaharan Africa, SARS-CoV-2, viral infections
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
CAB Abstracts
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
Open Journal of Preventive Medicine
Year:
2022
Document Type:
Article
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