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Pandemic fatigue impedes mitigation of COVID-19 in Hong Kong.
Du, Zhanwei; Wang, Lin; Shan, Songwei; Lam, Dickson; Tsang, Tim K; Xiao, Jingyi; Gao, Huizhi; Yang, Bingyi; Ali, Sheikh Taslim; Pei, Sen; Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai; Lau, Eric H Y; Liao, Qiuyan; Wu, Peng; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Leung, Gabriel M; Cowling, Benjamin J.
  • Du Z; World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Wang L; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Shan S; Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EH, United Kingdom.
  • Lam D; World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Tsang TK; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Xiao J; Independent Researcher, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Gao H; World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Yang B; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Ali ST; World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Pei S; World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Fung IC; World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Lau EHY; World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Liao Q; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Wu P; Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.
  • Meyers LA; Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Environmental Health Sciences, Jiann-Ping Hsu College of Public Health, Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, GA 30460.
  • Leung GM; World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
  • Cowling BJ; Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 000000, China.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(48): e2213313119, 2022 Nov 29.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2257664
ABSTRACT
Hong Kong has implemented stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs) to curb each of the four COVID-19 epidemic waves since January 2020. The third wave between July and September 2020 was brought under control within 2 m, while the fourth wave starting from the end of October 2020 has taken longer to bring under control and lasted at least 5 mo. Here, we report the pandemic fatigue as one of the potential reasons for the reduced impact of PHSMs on transmission in the fourth wave. We contacted either 500 or 1,000 local residents through weekly random-digit dialing of landlines and mobile telephones from May 2020 to February 2021. We analyze the epidemiological impact of pandemic fatigue by using the large and detailed cross-sectional telephone surveys to quantify risk perception and self-reported protective behaviors and mathematical models to incorporate population protective behaviors. Our retrospective prediction suggests that an increase of 100 daily new reported cases would lead to 6.60% (95% CI 4.03, 9.17) more people worrying about being infected, increase 3.77% (95% CI 2.46, 5.09) more people to avoid social gatherings, and reduce the weekly mean reproduction number by 0.32 (95% CI 0.20, 0.44). Accordingly, the fourth wave would have been 14% (95% CI% -53%, 81%) smaller if not for pandemic fatigue. This indicates the important role of mitigating pandemic fatigue in maintaining population protective behaviors for controlling COVID-19.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Influenza, Human / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Pnas.2213313119

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Influenza, Human / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Year: 2022 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Pnas.2213313119