Impact of COVID‐19‐Related Air Traffic Reductions on the Coverage and Radiative Effects of Linear Persistent Contrails Over Conterminous United States and Surrounding Oceanic Routes

ABSTRACT

The radiative effects of the large‐scale air traffic slowdown during April and May 2020 due to the international response to the COVID‐19 pandemic are estimated by comparing the coverage (CC), optical properties, and radiative forcing of persistent linear contrails over the conterminous United States and two surrounding oceanic air corridors during the slowdown period and a similar baseline period during 2018 and 2019 when air traffic was unrestricted. The detected CC during the slowdown period decreased by an area‐averaged mean of 41% for the three analysis boxes. The retrieved contrail optical properties were mostly similar for both periods. Total shortwave contrail radiative forcings (CRFs) during the slowdown were 34% and 42% smaller for Terra and Aqua, respectively. The corresponding differences for longwave CRF were 33% for Terra and 40% for Aqua. To account for the impact of any changes in the atmospheric environment between baseline and slowdown periods on detected CC amounts, the contrail formation potential (CFP) was computed from reanalysis data. In addition, a filtered CFP (fCFP) was also developed to account for factors that may affect contrail formation and visibility of persistent contrails in satellite imagery. The CFP and fCFP were combined with air traffic data to create empirical models that estimated CC during the baseline and slowdown periods and were compared to the detected CC. The models confirm that decreases in CC and radiative forcing during the slowdown period were mostly due to the reduction in air traffic, and partly due to environmental changes.AlternatePlain Language SummaryContrails produced by aircraft flying in cold but humid air both warm the atmosphere by reducing infrared radiation emitted back into space and cool it by increasing reflected sunlight. Due to the decrease in air traffic during the first months of the COVID pandemic, fewer satellite‐detectable contrails were produced compared to pre‐pandemic times, and thus the radiative effects of contrails were also diminished. But changes in the overall temperature and humidity at aircraft cruise altitudes also affect contrail formation and might explain at least some of the observed decrease in contrail coverage during April and May 2020. Analysis of satellite imagery showed that the thickness and ice‐crystal size of the contrails during the COVID period did not change much from pre‐pandemic contrails. The regional contrail coverage was accurately simulated from a combination of the estimated air traffic activity at cruise altitude and the probable frequency of when atmospheric conditions were favorable for contrail formation. This simulation confirms that most of the decrease in contrails and their radiative effects during the COVID‐related slowdown period were due to the reduction in air traffic, and to a lesser extent to changes in temperature and humidity at cruise altitude during April and May 2020.