The COVID-19 pandemic's true death toll in Iran after two years: an interrupted time series analysis of weekly all-cause mortality data.
BMC Public Health
; 23(1): 442, 2023 03 07.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2257891
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
This study aimed to investigate overall and age group/region/sex-specific excess all-cause mortality from the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic in Iran until February 2022.METHODS:
Weekly all-cause mortality data were obtained for the period March 2015 until February 2022. We conducted interrupted time series analyses, using a generalized least-square regression model to estimate excess mortality after the COVID-19 pandemic. Using this approach, we estimated the expected post-pandemic death counts based on five years of pre-pandemic data and compared the results with observed mortality during the pandemic.RESULTS:
After the COVID-19 pandemic, we observed an immediate increase (1,934 deaths per week, p = 0.01) in weekly all-cause mortality. An estimated 240,390 excess deaths were observed in two years after the pandemic. Within the same period, 136,166 deaths were officially attributed to COVID-19. The excess mortality was greatest among males compared with females (326 versus 264 per 100k), with an increasing trend by age group. There is a clear increased excess mortality in the central and northwestern provinces.CONCLUSION:
We found that the full mortality burden during the outbreak has been much heavier than what is officially reported, with clear differences by sex, age group, and geographical region.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
BMC Public Health
Journal subject:
Public Health
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S12889-023-15336-0
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS