COVID-19 Impact and Policy Response: A General Equilibrium Approach for Egypt

ABSTRACT

The economic impacts of COVID-19 were negative across nations but with different degrees depending on the timing, degree of containment measures and the extent of dependency on the world economy. Moreover, the policy response has been heterogeneous across different countries, but mainly addressing urgent and short-term problems without addressing the structural problems that led to the vulnerability of these countries in crisis times. Thus, the objective of this paper is threefold. First, it distinguishes between the supply and demand effects of COVID-19. Second, we examine the key differences between the short and long terms effects of the policies that were adopted. Finally, we modify the model to include the informal labor that was highly affected by the pandemic, and we relax the assumption of perfect competition and replicate the simulations under an imperfect competitive framework in order to see how reforms pertaining to competition policies can alter the adopted policies. To do so, we use a dynamic CGE model calibrated on the Egyptian Social Accounting Matrix of 2014/2015. Our findings show how the Egyptian economy has been relatively vulnerable to external shocks that affect its sources of foreign currency. Yet, most of the effects are temporary and vanish in the long run. Imperfect competition in commodity markets would increase the adverse effects of the pandemic and undermine the effectiveness of public policies.