PCR combined with serologic testing improves the yield and efficiency of SARS-CoV-2 infection hunting: A study in 40,689 consecutive overseas arrivals.

ABSTRACT

Background: The global epidemiological situation of COVID-19 remains serious. The rapid hunting of SARS-CoV-2 infection is the key means for preventing transmission. Methods: A total of 40,689 consecutive overseas arrivals were screened for SARS-CoV-2 infection based on PCR and serologic testing. The yield and efficiency of different screening algorithms were evaluated. Result: Among the 40,689 consecutive overseas arrivals, 56 (0.14%) subjects were confirmed to have SARS-CoV-2 infection. The asymptomatic rate was 76.8%. When the algorithm based on PCR alone was used, the identification yield of a single round of PCR (PCR1) was only 39.3% (95% CI 26.1-52.5%). It took at least four rounds of PCR to achieve a yield of 92.9% (95% CI 85.9-99.8%). Fortunately, an algorithm based on a single round of PCR combined with a single round of serologic testing (PCR1+ Ab1) greatly improved the screening yield to 98.2% (95% CI 94.6-100.0%) and required 42,299 PCR and 40,689 serologic tests that cost 6,052,855 yuan. By achieving a similar yield, the cost of PCR1+ Ab1 was 39.2% of that of four rounds of PCR. For hunting one case in PCR1+ Ab1, 769 PCR and 740 serologic tests were required, costing 110,052 yuan, which was 63.0% of that of the PCR1 algorithm. Conclusion: Comparing an algorithm based on PCR alone, PCR combined with a serologic testing algorithm greatly improved the yield and efficiency of the identification of SARS-CoV-2 infection.