COVID-19 multi-state epidemic forecast in India

ABSTRACT

Clinical importance Novel coronavirus disease is spread worldwide with considerable morbidity and mortality and presents an enormous burden on worldwide public health. Due to the non-stationarity and complicated nature of novel coronavirus waves, it is challenging to model such a phenomenon. Few mathematical models can be used because novel coronavirus data are generally not normally distributed. This paper describes a novel bio-system reliability approach, particularly suitable for multi-regional environmental and health systems, observed over a sufficient period of time, resulting in a reliable long-term forecast of novel coronavirus infection rate. Traditional statistical methods dealing with temporal observations of multi-regional processes do not have the advantage of dealing efficiently with extensive regional dimensionality and cross-correlation between infection rate and mortality. Objective: To determine extreme novel coronavirus death rate probability at any time in any region of interest. Traditional statistical methods dealing with temporal observations of multi-regional processes do not have the advantage of dealing efficiently with extensive regional dimensionality and cross-correlation between different regional observations. Design: Apply modern novel statistical methods directly to raw clinical data. Setting: Multicenter, population-based, medical survey data based bio statistical approach. Main outcome and measure: Due to the non-stationarity and complicated nature of novel coronavirus, it is challenging to model such a phenomenon. Few mathematical models can be used because novel coronavirus data are generally not normally distributed. This paper describes a novel bio-system reliability approach, particularly suitable for multi-country environmental and health systems, observed over a sufficient period of time, resulting in a reliable long-term forecast of extreme novel coronavirus death rate probability. Conclusions and relevance The suggested methodology can be used in various public health applications, based on their clinical survey data. © 2023, Indian National Science Academy.