Modeling the competitive transmission of the Omicron strain and Delta strain of COVID-19

ABSTRACT

Since November 2021, there have been cases of COVID-19's Omicron strain spreading in competition with Delta strains in many parts of the world. To explore how these two strains developed in this competitive spread, a new compartmentalized model was established. First, we analyzed the fundamental properties of the model, obtained the expression of the basic reproduction number, proved the local and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Then by means of the cubic spline interpolation method, we obtained the data of new Omicron and Delta cases in the United States of new cases starting from December 8, 2021, to February 12, 2022. Using the weighted nonlinear least squares estimation method, we fitted six time series (cumulative confirmed cases, cumulative deaths, new cases, new deaths, new Omicron cases, and new Delta cases), got estimates of the unknown parameters, and obtained an approximation of the basic reproduction number in the United States during this time period as