Urban spatial epidemic simulation model: A case study of the second COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing, China.

ABSTRACT

The second COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing was controlled by non-pharmaceutical interventions, which avoided a second pandemic. Until mass vaccination achieves herd immunity, cities are at risk of similar outbreaks. It is vital to quantify and simulate Beijing's non-pharmaceutical interventions to find effective intervention policies for the second outbreak. Few models have achieved accurate intra-city spatio-temporal epidemic spread simulation, and most modeling studies focused on the initial pandemic. We built a dynamic module of infected case movement within the city, and established an urban spatially epidemic simulation model (USESM), using mobile phone signaling data to create scenarios to assess the impact of interventions. We found that (1) USESM simulated the transmission process of the epidemic within Beijing; (2) USESM showed the epidemic curve and presented the spatial distribution of epidemic spread on a map; and (3) to balance resources, interventions, and economic development, nucleic acid testing intensity could be increased and restrictions on human mobility in non-epidemic areas eased.