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Comparative performance of between-population vaccine allocation strategies with applications for emerging pandemics.
Joshi, Keya; Rumpler, Eva; Kennedy-Shaffer, Lee; Bosan, Rafia; Lipsitch, Marc.
  • Joshi K; Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, MA, USA.
  • Rumpler E; Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, MA, USA.
  • Kennedy-Shaffer L; Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, MA, USA; Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Vassar College, 12604 Poughkeepsie, NY, USA.
  • Bosan R; Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, MA, USA.
  • Lipsitch M; Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 02115 Boston, MA, USA.
Vaccine ; 41(11): 1864-1874, 2023 03 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2264988
ABSTRACT
Vaccine allocation decisions during emerging pandemics have proven to be challenging due to competing ethical, practical, and political considerations. Complicating decision making, policy makers need to consider vaccine allocation strategies that balance needs both within and between populations. When vaccine stockpiles are limited, doses should be allocated in locations to maximize their impact. Using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model we examine optimal vaccine allocation decisions across two populations considering the impact of characteristics of the population (e.g., size, underlying immunity, heterogeneous risk structure, interaction), vaccine (e.g., vaccine efficacy), pathogen (e.g., transmissibility), and delivery (e.g., varying speed and timing of rollout). Across a wide range of characteristics considered, we find that vaccine allocation proportional to population size (i.e., pro-rata allocation) performs either better or comparably to nonproportional allocation strategies in minimizing the cumulative number of infections. These results may argue in favor of sharing of vaccines between locations in the context of an epidemic caused by an emerging pathogen, where many epidemiologic characteristics may not be known.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Vaccines / Pandemics Type of study: Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Vaccine Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.vaccine.2022.12.053

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Vaccines / Pandemics Type of study: Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Vaccine Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: J.vaccine.2022.12.053