A modelled evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on breast, bowel, and cervical cancer screening programmes in Australia.
Elife
; 122023 04 06.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2274176
ABSTRACT
Australia introduced COVID-19 infection prevention and control measures in early 2020. To help prepare health services, the Australian Government Department of Health commissioned a modelled evaluation of the impact of disruptions to population breast, bowel, and cervical cancer screening programmes on cancer outcomes and cancer services. We used the Policy1 modelling platforms to predict outcomes for potential disruptions to cancer screening participation, covering periods of 3, 6, 9, and 12 mo. We estimated missed screens, clinical outcomes (cancer incidence, tumour staging), and various diagnostic service impacts. We found that a 12-mo screening disruption would reduce breast cancer diagnoses (9.3% population-level reduction over 2020-2021) and colorectal cancer (up to 12.1% reduction over 2020-21), and increase cervical cancer diagnoses (up to 3.6% over 2020-2022), with upstaging expected for these cancer types (2, 1.4, and 6.8% for breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers, respectively). Findings for 6-12-mo disruption scenarios illustrate that maintaining screening participation is critical to preventing an increase in the burden of cancer at a population level. We provide programme-specific insights into which outcomes are expected to change, when changes are likely to become apparent, and likely downstream impacts. This evaluation provided evidence to guide decision-making for screening programmes and emphasises the ongoing benefits of maintaining screening in the face of potential future disruptions.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Breast Neoplasms
/
Colorectal Neoplasms
/
Uterine Cervical Neoplasms
/
COVID-19
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Female
/
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Oceania
Language:
English
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
ELife.82818
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