A MODLE OF VALUING NATURAL ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY BENEFITS BY ADJUSTING CONSUMPTION SURPRESSION

ABSTRACT

The new coronavirus (COVID-19) reduces consumers' consumption such as accesses to natural environmental qualities, leading to decrease benefit values of being used for bases of natural environmental managements. The purpose of this study is to develop a simple benefit valuation model that adjusts the consumption suppression by summing up the amounts of observed and reduced consumptions. The empirical estimation by the repeated discrete choice model is shown by using data on the number of visits and canceling visits on tourism activities during 2021, and the sites' attractions as alternative variables on environmental qualities. The results show that the benefit values by canceling are about 84% of benefit values by observed tourism demand.Alternate abstract抄録　新型コロナウィルス(COVID-19)下で生じた消費の抑制は，自然環境質への訪問回数を低下させ，自然環境管理の根拠となる便益値をもたらした．本研究の目的は，観察された訪問回数に中止回数を加えることで，観光回数に基づく便益を主便益，消費の抑制分を副次的便益として同時に計測する簡便な評価モデルの構築である．理論モデルとともに，繰り返し離散選択モデルを用いた推計例を示した．データは，2021年中の観光の訪問および中止回数，および観光地の質に関するデータである．実証分析の結果，副次的便益の値は，観察された需要量からの便益値の約84%となることが示唆された．