Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, weather, vaccination, and variants on COVID-19 transmission across departments in France.
BMC Infect Dis
; 23(1): 190, 2023 Mar 30.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2275368
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Multiple factors shape the temporal dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantifying their relative contributions is key to guide future control strategies. Our objective was to disentangle the individual effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), weather, vaccination, and variants of concern (VOC) on local SARS-CoV-2 transmission.METHODS:
We developed a log-linear model for the weekly reproduction number (R) of hospital admissions in 92 French metropolitan departments. We leveraged (i) the homogeneity in data collection and NPI definitions across departments, (ii) the spatial heterogeneity in the timing of NPIs, and (iii) an extensive observation period (14 months) covering different weather conditions, VOC proportions, and vaccine coverage levels.FINDINGS:
Three lockdowns reduced R by 72.7% (95% CI 71.3-74.1), 70.4% (69.2-71.6) and 60.7% (56.4-64.5), respectively. Curfews implemented at 6/7 pm and 8/9 pm reduced R by 34.3% (27.9-40.2) and 18.9% (12.04-25.3), respectively. School closures reduced R by only 4.9% (2.0-7.8). We estimated that vaccination of the entire population would have reduced R by 71.7% (56.4-81.6), whereas the emergence of VOC (mainly Alpha during the study period) increased transmission by 44.6% (36.1-53.6) compared with the historical variant. Winter weather conditions (lower temperature and absolute humidity) increased R by 42.2% (37.3-47.3) compared to summer weather conditions. Additionally, we explored counterfactual scenarios (absence of VOC or vaccination) to assess their impact on hospital admissions.INTERPRETATION:
Our study demonstrates the strong effectiveness of NPIs and vaccination and quantifies the role of weather while adjusting for other confounders. It highlights the importance of retrospective evaluation of interventions to inform future decision-making.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
COVID-19
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
/
Variants
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
BMC Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S12879-023-08106-1
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