Forecasting of COVID-19 Outbreak in India: A Time Series Analysis

ABSTRACT

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the status of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to a global pandemic on March 11, 2020. Since then, numerous statistical, epidemiological and mathematical models have been used and investigated by researchers across the world to predict the spread of this pandemic in different geographical locations. The data for COVID-19 outbreak in India has been collated on daily new confirmed cases from March 12, 2020 to April 10, 2021. A time series analysis using Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used to investigate the dataset and then forecast for the next 30-day time-period from April 11, 2021, to May 10, 2021. The selected model predicts a surge in the number of daily new cases and number of deaths. An investigation into the daily infection rate for India has also been done. © 2023 The authors and IOS Press.