Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Evaluation of the model malaria elimination strategy in Mandla district along with its neighbouring districts: a time series analysis from 2008 to 2020.
Singh, Mrigendra P; Rajvanshi, Harsh; Bharti, Praveen K; Jayswar, Himanshu; Singh, Srinath; Mehra, R K; Pandey, Manoj; Sahu, Ram Shankar; Patel, Brajesh; Bhalavi, Ramji; Nisar, Sekh; Kaur, Harpreet; Das, Aparup; Hamer, Davidson H; Lal, Altaf A.
  • Singh MP; Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project, Mandla, Madhya Pradesh, India.
  • Rajvanshi H; Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project, Mandla, Madhya Pradesh, India.
  • Bharti PK; Asia Pacific Leaders Malaria Alliance (APLMA), Singapore, Singapore.
  • Jayswar H; Indian Council of Medical Research - National Institute of Research in Tribal Health (ICMR-NIRTH), Jabalpur, Madhya Pradesh, India.
  • Singh S; Indian Council of Medical Research - National Institute of Malaria Research (ICMR-NIMR), New Delhi, India.
  • Mehra RK; Directorate General of Health Services, Government of Madhya Pradesh, Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, India.
  • Pandey M; Department of Health Services, Government of Madhya Pradesh, Mandla, Madhya Pradesh, India.
  • Sahu RS; Department of Health Services, Government of Madhya Pradesh, Dindori, Madhya Pradesh, India.
  • Patel B; Department of Health Services, Government of Madhya Pradesh, Balaghat, Madhya Pradesh, India.
  • Bhalavi R; Department of Health Services, Government of Madhya Pradesh, Mandla, Madhya Pradesh, India.
  • Nisar S; Department of Health Services, Government of Madhya Pradesh, Dindori, Madhya Pradesh, India.
  • Kaur H; Department of Health Services, Government of Madhya Pradesh, Balaghat, Madhya Pradesh, India.
  • Das A; Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project, Mandla, Madhya Pradesh, India.
  • Hamer DH; Department of Health and Family Welfare, NHM Raigarh, Chhattisgarh, India.
  • Lal AA; Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, New Delhi, India.
Malar J ; 22(1): 45, 2023 Feb 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2281653
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

Compared to 2017, India achieved a significant reduction in malaria cases in 2020. Madhya Pradesh (MP) is a tribal dominated state of India with history of high malaria burden in some districts. District Mandla of MP state showed a considerable decline in malaria cases between 2000 and 2013, except in 2007. Subsequently, a resurgence of malaria cases was observed during 2014 and 2015. The Malaria Elimination Demonstration Project (MEDP) was launched in 2017 in Mandla with the goal to achieve zero indigenous malaria cases. This project used (1) active surveillance and case management using T4 (Track fever, Test fever, Treat patient, and Track patient); (2) vector control using indoor residual sprays and long-lasting insecticidal nets; (3) information education communication and behaviour change communication; and (4) regular monitoring and evaluation with an emphasis on operational and management accountability. This study has investigated malaria prevalence trends from 2008 to 2020, and has predicted trends for the next 5 years for Mandla and its bordering districts.

METHODS:

The malaria prevalence data of the district Mandla for the period of January 2008 to August 2017 was obtained from District Malaria Office (DMO) Mandla and data for the period of September 2017 to December 2020 was taken from MEDP data repository. Further, the malaria prevalence data for the period of January 2008 to December 2020 was collected from DMOs of the neighbouring districts of Mandla. A univariate time series and forecast analysis was performed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model.

FINDINGS:

Malaria prevalence in Mandla showed a sharp decline [- 87% (95% CI - 90%, - 84%)] from 2017 to 2020. The malaria forecast for Mandla predicts zero cases in the next 5 years (2021-2025), provided current interventions are sustained. By contrast, the model has forecasted a risk of resurgence of malaria in other districts in MP (Balaghat, Dindori, Jabalpur, Seoni, and Kawardha) that were not the part of MEDP.

CONCLUSION:

The interventions deployed as part of MEDP have resulted in a sustainable zero indigenous malaria cases in Mandla. Use of similar strategies in neighbouring and other malaria-endemic districts in India could achieve similar results. However, without adding extra cost to the existing intervention, sincere efforts are needed to sustain these interventions and their impact using accountability framework, data transparency, and programme ownership from state to district level.
Subject(s)
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Malaria Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Malar J Journal subject: Tropical Medicine Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12936-023-04477-7

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Malaria Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: Malar J Journal subject: Tropical Medicine Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12936-023-04477-7