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The global dynamic transmissibility of COVID-19 and its influencing factors: an analysis of control measures from 176 countries.
Wang, Hongjian; Lan, Yajia.
  • Wang H; West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
  • Lan Y; West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China. lanyajia@sina.com.
BMC Public Health ; 23(1): 404, 2023 02 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2285998
ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE:

To summarise the dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 transmissibility; To analyse and quantify the effect of control measures on controlling the transmissibility of COVID-19; To predict and compare the effectiveness of different control measures.

METHODS:

We used the basic reproduction number ([Formula see text]) to measure the transmissibility of COVID-19, the transmissibility of COVID-19 and control measures of 176 countries and regions from January 1, 2020 to May 14, 2022 were included in the study. The dynamic characteristics of COVID-19 transmissibility were summarised through descriptive research and a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model was constructed to quantify the effect of control measures on controlling the transmissibility of COVID-19.

RESULTS:

The results show that the spatial transmissibility of COVID-19 is high in Asia, Europe and Africa, the temporal transmissibility of COVID-19 increases with the epidemic of Beta and Omicron strains. Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model shows that the transmissibility of COVID-19 is negatively correlated with control measures. Restricting population mobility has the strongest effect, nucleic acid testing (NAT) has a strong effect, and vaccination has the weakest effect.

CONCLUSION:

Strict control measures are essential for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak; Restricting population mobility and nucleic acid testing (NAT) have significant impacts on controlling the COVID-19 transmissibility, while vaccination has no significant impact. In light of these findings, future control measures may include the widespread use of new NAT technology and the promotion of booster immunization.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Nucleic Acids / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Africa / Asia Language: English Journal: BMC Public Health Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12889-023-15174-0

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Nucleic Acids / COVID-19 Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines / Variants Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Africa / Asia Language: English Journal: BMC Public Health Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S12889-023-15174-0