The species coalescent indicates possible bat and pangolin origins of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT

A consensus species tree is reconstructed from 11 gene trees for human, bat, and pangolin beta coronaviruses from samples taken early in the pandemic (prior to April 1, 2020). Using coalescent theory, the shallow (short branches relative to the hosts) consensus species tree provides evidence of recent gene flow events between bat and pangolin beta coronaviruses predating the zoonotic transfer to humans. The consensus species tree was also used to reconstruct the ancestral sequence of human SARS-CoV-2, which was 2 nucleotides different from the Wuhan sequence. The time to most recent common ancestor was estimated to be Dec 8, 2019 with a bat origin. Some human, bat, and pangolin coronavirus lineages found in China are phylogenetically distinct, a rare example of a class II phylogeography pattern (Avise et al. in Ann Rev Eco Syst 18489-422, 1987). The consensus species tree is a product of evolutionary factors, providing evidence of repeated zoonotic transfers between bat and pangolin as a reservoir for future zoonotic transfers to humans.