Spatio-temporal Graph Learning for Epidemic Prediction

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed great challenges to public health services, government agencies, and policymakers, raising huge social conflicts between public health and economic resilience. Policies such as reopening or closure of business activities are formulated based on scientific projections of infection risks obtained from infection dynamics models. Though most parameters in epidemic prediction service models can be set with domain knowledge of COVID-19, a key parameter, namely, human mobility, is often challenging to estimate due to complex spatio-temporal correlations and social contexts under escalating COVID-19 facilities. Moreover, how to integrate the various implicit features to accurately predict infectious cases is still an open issue. To address this challenge, we formulate the problem as a spatio-temporal network representation problem and propose STEP, a Spatio-Temporal Epidemic Prediction framework, to estimate pandemic infection risk of a city by integrating various real-world conditions (e.g., City Risk Index, climate, and medical conditions) into graph-structured data. We also employ a multi-head attention mechanism in representation learning to extract implicit features for a given city. Extensive experiments have been conducted upon the real-world dataset for 51 states (50 states and Washington, D.C.) of the USA. Experimental results show that STEP can yield more accurate pandemic infection risk estimation than baseline methods. Moreover, STEP outperforms other methods in both short-term and long-term prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems & Technology is the property of Association for Computing Machinery and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)