Hydrocarbon Security Strategy and Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutral Strategy: Relationship and Path

ABSTRACT

A century of changes combined with the COVID-19 pandemic has sounded the alarm on energy security around the world. How to deeply understand the relationship between energy transition and energy security, and how to explore the path of China's energy security and the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality (abbreviated as "dual carbon”) strategy have become a major problem. Based on detailed analyses of China's energy consumption predictions and dual carbon strategy requirements, this study proposes (1) Energy security is the foundation of energy transition. The oil and gas shortage situation in China may persist for a long time. The "dual carbon” goal does not conflict with hydrocarbon security strategy. (2) China's hydrocarbon security needs to be considered at two levels. The deployment needs to be made in the near-, medium-and long-term. First, it is necessary to continue exploring traditional oil and gas resources, including land and sea, conventional and unconventional resources. The second is to actively explore at new areas of oil and gas resources, and focus on organizing the "three revolutions” of in-situ conversion of medium-low mature shale oil, thermal conversion and utilization of oil-rich coal and underground coal gasification to prepare for large-scale increase of oil and gas production. (3) The "dual carbon” strategy is an extensive and profound system revolution. The withdrawal of fossil energy must be based on energy security. The clean use of fossil energy, the increased use of renewable energy, the construction of flexible smart grids, the construction of energy storage infrastructure and the improvement of efficiency in energy utilization, must be paid close attention to simultaneously. On the basis of ensuring energy security, the goal of "carbon neutrality” can be achieved through multiple ways relying on technological progress. © 2023, Science Press. All rights reserved.