A new logistic regression derived combined index for early prediction of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients
Minerva Respiratory Medicine
; 62(1):25-32, 2023.
Article
in English
| EMBASE | ID: covidwho-2291997
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
While the type and the number of treatments for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have substantially evolved since the start of the pandemic a significant number of hospitalized patients continue to succumb. This requires ongoing research in the development and improvement of early risk stratification tools. METHOD(S) We developed a prognostic score using epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and treatment variables collected on admission in 130 adult COVID-19 patients followed until in-hospital death (N.=38) or discharge (N.=92). Potential variables were selected via multivariable logistic regression modelling conducted using a logistic regression univariate analysis to create a combined index. RESULT(S) Age, Charlson Comorbidity Index, P/F ratio, prothrombin time, C-reactive protein and troponin were the selected variables. AUROC indicated that the model had an excellent AUC value (0.971, 95% CI 0.926 to 0.993) with 100% sensitivity and 83% specificity for in-hospital mortality. The Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration test yielded non-significant P values (chi2=1.79, P=0.99) indicates good calibration. CONCLUSION(S) This newly developed combined index could be useful to predict mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients on admission.Copyright © 2022 EDIZIONI MINERVA MEDICA.
covid-19; Hospital mortality; Respiratory insufficiency; SARS-CoV-2; activated partial thromboplastin time; adult; aged; albumin blood level; article; cardiovascular disease; Charlson Comorbidity Index; coronavirus disease 2019; erythrocyte count; female; hemoglobin blood level; Horowitz index; human; in-hospital mortality; leukocyte count; logistic regression analysis; lymphocyte count; male; mean corpuscular volume; mean platelet volume; neutrophil count; neutrophil lymphocyte ratio; outcome assessment; platelet count; platelet lymphocyte ratio; prediction; prothrombin time; receiver operating characteristic; red blood cell distribution width; retrospective study; sensitivity and specificity; alanine aminotransferase; aspartate aminotransferase; bilirubin/ec [Endogenous Compound]; brain natriuretic peptide/ec [Endogenous Compound]; C reactive protein/ec [Endogenous Compound]; creatinine/ec [Endogenous Compound]; D dimer/ec [Endogenous Compound]; ferritin/ec [Endogenous Compound]; lactate dehydrogenase/ec [Endogenous Compound]; troponin/ec [Endogenous Compound]
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
EMBASE
Type of study:
Prognostic study
Language:
English
Journal:
Minerva Respiratory Medicine
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
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