Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Development and validation of the nomogram to predict the risk of hospital drug shortages: A prediction model.
Dong, Jie; Gao, Yang; Liu, Yi; Yang, Xiuling.
  • Dong J; Department of Pharmacy, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, P.R. China.
  • Gao Y; Department of Pharmacy, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, P.R. China.
  • Liu Y; Department of Pharmacy, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, P.R. China.
  • Yang X; Department of Pharmacy, The Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, P.R. China.
PLoS One ; 18(4): e0284528, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2294383
ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION:

Reasons for drug shortages are multi-factorial, and patients are greatly injured. So we needed to reduce the frequency and risk of drug shortages in hospitals. At present, the risk of drug shortages in medical institutions rarely used prediction models. To this end, we attempted to proactively predict the risk of drug shortages in hospital drug procurement to make further decisions or implement interventions.

OBJECTIVES:

The aim of this study is to establish a nomogram to show the risk of drug shortages.

METHODS:

We collated data obtained using the centralized procurement platform of Hebei Province and defined independent and dependent variables to be included in the model. The data were divided into a training set and a validation set according to 73. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine independent risk factors, and discrimination (using the receiver operating characteristic curve), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and decision curve analysis were validated.

RESULTS:

As a result, volume-based procurement, therapeutic class, dosage form, distribution firm, take orders, order date, and unit price were regarded as independent risk factors for drug shortages. In the training (AUC = 0.707) and validation (AUC = 0.688) sets, the nomogram exhibited a sufficient level of discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS:

The model can predict the risk of drug shortages in the hospital drug purchase process. The application of this model will help optimize the management of drug shortages in hospitals.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Nomograms / Hospitals Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2023 Document Type: Article

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Nomograms / Hospitals Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2023 Document Type: Article