Macroeconomic uncertainty and firms' investment in China

ABSTRACT

This paper constructs macroeconomic uncertainty indices for China from 2009 to 2021 based on the distribution of forecast errors of major macroeconomic variables. The indices effectively capture the economy's deep slump and rebound in 2020. This study reveals a negative relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and firms' investment, with downside uncertainty having a larger negative impact than upside uncertainty. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.