Estimating spatially disaggregated probability of severe COVID-19 and the impact of hand washing interventions: the case of Zimbabwe
Policy Research Working Paper World Bank
; 10328(19), 2023.
Article
in English
| GIM | ID: covidwho-2297298
ABSTRACT
The severity of COVID-19 disease varies substantially between individuals, with some infections being asymptomatic while others are fatal. Several risk factors have been identified that affect the progression of SARS-CoV-2 to severe COVID-19. They include age, smoking and presence of underlying comorbidities such as respiratory illness, HIV, anemia and obesity. Given that respiratory illness is one such comorbidity and is affected by hand hygiene, it is plausible that improving access to hand washing could lower the risk of severe COVID-19 among a population. In this paper, we estimate the potential impact of improved access to hand washing on the risk of respiratory illness and its knock-on impact on the risk of developing severe COVID-19 disease across Zimbabwe. We use a geospatial model that allows us to estimate differential clinical risk at the district level. Results show that the current risk of severe disease is heterogeneous across the country, due to differences in individual characteristics and household conditions. This study demonstrates how household level improved access to handwashing could lead to reductions in the risk of severe COVID-19 of up to 16% from the estimated current levels across all districts. Taken alongside the likely impact on transmission of SARS-CoV-2 itself, as well as countless other pathogens, this result adds further support for the expansion of access to hand washing across the country. It also highlights the spatial differences in risk of severe COVID-19, and thus the opportunity for better planning to focus limited resources in high risk areas in order to potentially reduce the number of severe cases.
viral diseases; human diseases; risk factors; coronavirus disease 2019; risk; hand washing; hygiene; spatial distribution; case studies; asymptomatic infections; HIV infections; human immunodeficiency viruses; body mass index; obesity; overweight; comorbidity; lungs; respiratory diseases; households; infections; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; man; Lentivirus; Zimbabwe; Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus; Betacoronavirus; Coronavirinae; Coronaviridae; Nidovirales; positive-sense ssRNA Viruses; ssRNA Viruses; RNA Viruses; viruses; Homo; Hominidae; primates; mammals; vertebrates; Chordata; animals; eukaryotes; ACP Countries; Anglophone Africa; Africa; Commonwealth of Nations; lower-middle income countries; medium Human Development Index countries; SADC Countries; Southern Africa; Africa South of Sahara; Orthoretrovirinae; Retroviridae; RNA Reverse Transcribing Viruses; SARS-CoV-2; viral infections; subsaharan Africa; human immunodeficiency virus infections; fatness; lung diseases
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Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
GIM
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
Language:
English
Journal:
Policy Research Working Paper World Bank
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
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