Micromodel and Analysis of COVID-19 Based on Hypergraph

ABSTRACT

In view of the fact that the existing propagation models ignore the influence of different fields and different virus variants on individual infection, and the classical propagation models only describe the macroscopic situation of virus transmission, which cannot be specific to individual cases, this paper proposes 67ya microscopic virus propagation model based on hypergraph (HC-SIRS). Firstly, the concept of hypergraph is used to divide different fields of individuals into corresponding hyperedges. Based on different contact probabilities of each hyperedge, the contact probability matrix is formed to relate the contact between individuals. The individual infection probability of micro-virus propagation model based on hypergraph is deduced, and the corresponding differential equation is established. Secondly, the basic regeneration number and its characteristics of the model are derived. The upper bound of the basic regeneration number of the model is less than or equal to that of the classical SIRS model, indicating that the virus is more difficult to spread in this model. In fact, the different fields people live in and the different personal constitutions have a certain impact on the spread of the virus. The model is more comprehensive, so it is more suitable for simulating the spread of the virus in theory. Finally, the COVID-19 data of Diamond Princess and two cities in China are used for simulation experiments, and the mean absolute error(MAE) is used as the evaluation standard. The results showed that HC-SIRS could well simulate the spread of COVID-19. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.