Forecasting the Temporal Evolution of COVID-19

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 epidemic has resulted in severe chaos across the globe. Complex frameworks can be investigated and studied using mathematical models, which are reliable and efficient. The objective of this research is to scrutinize the progression and prediction of parameters that evaluate the emergence and transmission of COVID-19 in the two most affected nations, i.e., the USA and India. Five models including the standard and hybrid epidemic models, viz, SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed), SIRD (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Death), SIRD with vaccination, SIRD with vital dynamics (i.e., including birth rate and death rate) and, SIRD with vital dynamics and vaccination have been developed. Worldwide statistics have been observed utilizing graphical layouts. Model evaluation measures such as Mean Absolute error (MAE), Mean-square error (MSE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for different parameters namely infection rate, recovery rate, and death rate have been estimated. © 2022 IEEE.