Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Assessing the Impact of Vaccination on the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Africa: A Mathematical Modeling Study.
Montcho, Yvette; Nalwanga, Robinah; Azokpota, Paustella; Doumatè, Jonas Têlé; Lokonon, Bruno Enagnon; Salako, Valère Kolawole; Wolkewitz, Martin; Glèlè Kakaï, Romain.
  • Montcho Y; Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d'Estimations Forestières, Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou 04 BP 1525, Benin.
  • Nalwanga R; Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d'Estimations Forestières, Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou 04 BP 1525, Benin.
  • Azokpota P; Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d'Estimations Forestières, Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou 04 BP 1525, Benin.
  • Doumatè JT; Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d'Estimations Forestières, Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou 04 BP 1525, Benin.
  • Lokonon BE; Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou 01 BP 526, Benin.
  • Salako VK; Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d'Estimations Forestières, Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou 04 BP 1525, Benin.
  • Wolkewitz M; Laboratoire de Biomathématiques et d'Estimations Forestières, Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou 04 BP 1525, Benin.
  • Glèlè Kakaï R; Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, Faculty of Medicine and Medical Center, University of Freiburg, 79104 Freiburg, Germany.
Vaccines (Basel) ; 11(4)2023 Apr 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2300315
ABSTRACT
Several effective COVID-19 vaccines are administered to combat the COVID-19 pandemic globally. In most African countries, there is a comparatively limited deployment of vaccination programs. In this work, we develop a mathematical compartmental model to assess the impact of vaccination programs on curtailing the burden of COVID-19 in eight African countries considering SARS-CoV-2 cumulative case data for each country for the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The model stratifies the total population into two subgroups based on individual vaccination status. We use the detection and death rates ratios between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals to quantify the vaccine's effectiveness in reducing new COVID-19 infections and death, respectively. Additionally, we perform a numerical sensitivity analysis to assess the combined impact of vaccination and reduction in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to control measures on the control reproduction number (Rc). Our results reveal that on average, at least 60% of the population in each considered African country should be vaccinated to curtail the pandemic (lower the Rc below one). Moreover, lower values of Rc are possible even when there is a low (10%) or moderate (30%) reduction in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate due to NPIs. Combining vaccination programs with various levels of reduction in the transmission rate due to NPI aids in curtailing the pandemic. Additionally, this study shows that vaccination significantly reduces the severity of the disease and death rates despite low efficacy against COVID-19 infections. The African governments need to design vaccination strategies that increase vaccine uptake, such as an incentive-based approach.
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Language: English Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Vaccines11040857

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Topics: Vaccines Language: English Year: 2023 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Vaccines11040857