A Multivariate Deep Learning Model with Coupled Human Intervention Factors for COVID-19 Forecasting
Systems
; 11(4):201, 2023.
Article
in English
| ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2302147
ABSTRACT
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology plays a crucial role in infectious disease outbreak prediction and control. Many human interventions can influence the spread of epidemics, including government responses, quarantine, and economic support. However, most previous AI-based models have failed to consider human interventions when predicting the trend of infectious diseases. This study selected four human intervention factors that may affect COVID-19 transmission, examined their relationship to epidemic cases, and developed a multivariate long short-term memory network model (M-LSTM) incorporating human intervention factors. Firstly, we analyzed the correlations and lagged effects between four human factors and epidemic cases in three representative countries, and found that these four factors typically delayed the epidemic case data by approximately 15 days. On this basis, a multivariate epidemic prediction model (M-LSTM) was developed. The model prediction results show that coupling human intervention factors generally improves model performance, but adding certain intervention factors also results in lower performance. Overall, a multivariate deep learning model with coupled variable correlation and lag outperformed other comparative models, and thus validated its effectiveness in predicting infectious diseases.
Computers--Computer Systems; COVID-19 forecasting; human interventions; multivariate prediction; LSTM model; Infectious diseases; Prediction models; Disease control; Neural networks; Epidemics; Multivariate analysis; Viral diseases; Deep learning; Machine learning; Artificial intelligence; Coronaviruses; Human factors; United Kingdom--UK; United States--US; India
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
ProQuest Central
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
Language:
English
Journal:
Systems
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
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