Analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the public transport system by bus in Brazil

ABSTRACT

This article analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on public transport by bus in two Brazilian metropolia, Belo Horizonte and Joao Pessoa. Spearman's correlation pointed out a strong relationship between the variation in the number of passengers transported and the restrictive measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic showing that they probably dictated the use of public transport by the population. However, the correlation between the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the variation of transported users was weak in Belo Horizonte and insignificant in Joao Pessoa. Given the influence of the stringency measures, the significant differences in correlation values with the variation of passengers were identified and proven, being 60% in Belo Horizonte and 76% in Joao Pessoa. The causality test confirmed that the pandemic intensified the drop in demand for public transport. Therefore, the more severe the policy to combat the transmission of the virus, the greater the relationship with the decrease in demand for buses. Thus, the pandemic was responsible for a significant drop in the number of passengers than the estimated trend for the same period. Finally, results show a crisis in the public transport system by bus in Brazil and the urgent need to rethink strategies to attract users to this service.