Epidemic threshold of a COVID-19 model with gaussian white noise and semi-Markov switching.

ABSTRACT

In this study, we investigate the COVID-19 propagation dynamics using a stochastic SIQR model with Gaussian white noise and semi-Markovian switching, focusing on the impacts of Gaussian white noise and semi-Markovian switching on the propagation dynamics of COVID-19. It is suggested that the fate of COVID-19 is entirely determined by the basic reproduction number R0, under mild extra conditions. By making sensitivity analysis on R0, we found that the effect of quarantine rate on R0 was more significant compared to transmission rate. Our results demonstrate that (i) The presence of Gaussian white noise, while reducing the basic reproduction number R0 of COVID-19, also poses more challenges for the prediction and control of COVID-19 propagation. (ii) The conditional holding time distribution has a significant effect on the kinetics of COVID-19. (iii) The semi-Markov switching and Gaussian white noise can support irregular recurrence of COVID-19 outbreaks.