Which biomarker(s) to predict worsening of SARS-CoV2 infection? An ancillary study from the COVIDeF cohort

ABSTRACT

Introduction: COVID-19 has been responsible for millions of deaths and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions all over the world. Identifying the patients at risk of developing a severe form is crucial for an optimized orientation and allocation of resources. The main objective of our study was to identify among a selection of biomarkers, those predictive of short term worsening in COVID-19. Method(s) This is an ancillary study using clinical data and collected biobanking from the multicentric cohort study COVIDeF, which included prospectively from March 31th 2020 to March 30th 2021, patients admitted with a suspected Sars-CoV2 infection in the Assistance- Publique-Hopitaux de Paris network, France. Patients with confirmed COVID-19 were divided in 2 groups a severe (ICU admission or invasive or non-invasive ventilation or ARDS or death) and a control group (no worsening). The routine blood tests and following biomarkers troponin, C Reactive Protein (CRP), procalcitonin, Mild- Regional pro-Adrenomedulin (MR-proADM), pro-endothelin, SuPAR, NT-proBNP, calprotectin, PF4, D-dimers, were measured in plasma or serum and compared between both groups using a conditional logistic regression. Result(s) Among the 1040 first patients included in the COVIDEF cohort, we selected 512 patients having a blood sample drawn at admission before worsening, of which 60 secondarily worsened (severe group). The mean age was 59.5 (+/- 19.5) years and 50.2% were females. Among the biomarkers tested, three were independently associated with worsening CRP (mg/l) OR 1.01 [IC 1.01-1.02], procalcitonin (ng/ml) OR 0.4428 [0.21-0.95] and MR-proADM (pg/ml) OR 3.012 [1.06-8.53]. Conclusion(s) Among a selection of biomarkers of interest, MRproADM appears to best identify at admission COVID-19 patients at risk of worsening. Future interventional studies should test the efficacy and security of this biomarker to rule-in and rule-out severe outcome and the usefulness for allocating resources.