Trends in rural tourism development in Lviv region based on forecasting

ABSTRACT

The rural tourism is a promising type of tourism in rural areas that increases the socio-economic level and wellbeing of the population. The entrepreneurial activity in villages provides an opportunity to expand employment, increase investment attractiveness and contribute to the improvement of rural infrastructure. Based on the analysis of data for the period 2012-2020, the forecast trends in the number of rural tourism farmsteads and their visitors in Lviv region are presented using trend analysis and the FORECAST. ETS. STAT function for the period 2021-2025. The Russian military aggression against Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affect the activities and prospects for the development of rural tourism in the country. Having built logarithmic, linear, exponential, power and polynomial trend models, the probable indicators for the specified period were forecasted. The current state and trends of rural tourism development during the COVID-19 pandemic and in the context of Russia's military aggression in Eastern Ukraine are considered. The formation and sale of quality products and services in the field of rural tourism involve providing a favorable environment and improving the quality of functioning of rural tourism estates. The development of rural tourism depends on the desires and demands of tourists, which form the demand in this area, which in turn creates supply in the market of tourist services and further development of business activities in the field of services in rural areas.