Excess deaths by cause and place of death in England and Wales during the first year of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT

Using officially registered weekly mortality data, we estimate a counterfactual death count in the absence of the pandemic and we calculate the number of excess deaths in England and Wales during 2020 after the pandemic onset. We also break down those figures by region, age, gender, place of death, and cause of death. Our results suggest that there were 82,428 (95% Confidence interval [CI] 78,402 to 86,415) excess deaths, and 88.9% (95% CI 84.8%-93.5%) of them was due to COVID-19, suggesting that non-COVID-19 excess mortality may have been slightly higher that what has been previously estimated. Regarding deaths not due to COVID-19, persons older than 45 years old who died at their homes, mainly from heart diseases and cancer, were the most affected group. Across all causes of death, there was increased excess mortality from dementia and Alzheimer's disease, diabetes, Parkinson's disease and heart-related disease, while at the same period there was a reduction in deaths from pneumonia and influenza, stroke as well as infectious diseases and accidents. Supported by regional panel event estimates, our results highlight how measures to mitigate the pandemic spread and ease the pressure on healthcare service systems may adversely affect out-of-hospital mortality from other causes.