Unpacking Modeling Studies

ABSTRACT

There is increasing recognition of the usefulness of mathematical models in informing public health intervention strategies and policymakers on how to address different epidemics. Over the years, we have seen many models testing different interventions to prevent the spread of HIV. Lately, mathematical models have been used to assess interventions focused on controlling the spread of COVID-19 and, more recently, of Mpox. However, as we will show in this presentation, we saw considerable pressure to fast produce mathematical models for COVID-19 to inform on different policies to control the spread of this disease. Consequently, we saw that several of these models missed the mark, and others, although not perfect, were useful in making predictions based on different interventions. In this presentation, I will describe how mathematical models have informed public health Interventions. We will provide an overview of the use of mathematical models to prevent HIV, COVID-19 and Mpox. I will propose a list of criteria to evaluate and write publications involving mathematical models. Finally, I will discuss some of the lessons learned for properly using mathematical models and interpreting results and propose a pathway moving forward.