A country-specific COVID-19 model
Epidemiologic Methods
; (1)2023.
Article
in English
| ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2317176
ABSTRACT
To dynamically measure COVID-19 transmissibility consistently normalized by population size in each country.A reduced-form model enhanced from the classical SIR is proposed to stochastically represent the Reproduction Number and Mortality Rate, directly measuring the combined effects of viral evolution and population behavioral response functions.Evidences are shown that this e(hanced)-SIR model has the power to fit country-specific empirical data, produce interpretable model parameters to be used for generating probabilistic scenarios adapted to the still unfolding pandemic.Stochastic processes embedded within compartmental epidemiological models can produce measurables and actionable information for surveillance and planning purposes.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
Databases of international organizations
Database:
ProQuest Central
Language:
English
Journal:
Epidemiologic Methods
Year:
2023
Document Type:
Article
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