The reaction of the metal and gold resource planning in the post-COVID-19 era and Russia-Ukrainian conflict: Role of fossil fuel markets for portfolio hedging strategies

ABSTRACT

The prime objective of this article is to examine the policy-making role of metal markets, gold resources, and clean energy markets in the post-COVID-19 era and the Russia-Ukrainian military conflict. In doing so, we analyze the role of fossil fuels, clean energy, and metals markets, considering the military conflict in Ukraine in 2022. The study employs event study methodology (ESM), Total connectedness index (TCI), and network analyses. The results indicate that natural gas and clean energy prices are less affected by conflict in the aftermath of an invasion than traditional energy and metals markets. In addition, we observe an increase in the TCI in the energy markets during announcement days. The TCI of the metals market is greater than that of the energy market. According to network connectivity, the key asset class transmitters of the shock in Europe are the Geopolitical index (GPR), gold, and the clean energy stock index (ERIX). The U.S. markets are less affected by the situation in Ukraine. The average hedge suggests that the optimal hedge differs from one market to the next, with fossil fuels and renewable energy, respectively, being more hedge effective and reducing risk by an average of around 0.80 and 0.59, given their ability to function as a hedging instrument.