The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Primary Care Referrals and New Diagnoses of Inflammatory Arthritis

ABSTRACT

Background/Aims The COVID-19 pandemic abruptly changed healthcare delivery. This study describes the impact the pandemic had on time to referral and diagnosis of inflammatory arthropathies (IA), including rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and juvenile inflammatory arthritis (JIA), in patients presenting in primary care with musculoskeletal problems. Methods Data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum were analysed from 01/04/17 to 01/10/2021 to describe episodes of care for patients with musculoskeletal conditions for pre-COVID-19 (01/04/ 2017-31/03/2020), peri-COVID-19 (01/04/2020-31/07/2021), and post- COVID-19 lockdown (01/08/2020-31/10/2021) periods. Prevalent and incident musculoskeletal consultations were determined. Referrals were matched to these consultations. Trends in referrals to musculoskeletal services and further incident diagnoses of IA were described using Joinpoint Regression and comparisons made between timeperiods. Negative binomial regression was used to compare incident rates between time-periods of RA/JIA/IA diagnosis and referral from first musculoskeletal consultation;and RA/JIA/IA diagnosis from first referral. The number of consultations between first musculoskeletal consultation and referral/diagnosis were described. Results were adjusted for age and sex and further stratified by geographical region and deprivation. Results The incidence rate of RA and JIA reduced by average -13.32% (from 31.98 per 1,000,000 to 17.15 per 1,000,000) and -17.43% (from 1.77 per 1,000,000 to 0.97 per 1,000,000) per month respectively between January 2020 and April 2020, then increased by 1.9% (from 17.15 per 1,000,000 to 25.22 per 1,000,000) and 3.7% (from 0.97 per 1,000,000 to 1.28 per 1,000,000) per month respectively between April 2020 and October 2021. Referral incidence decreased between February 2020 and May 2020 by -16.8% per month in patients presenting with a musculoskeletal condition. After May 2020, referrals increased significantly (16.8% per month) July 2020. Time from first musculoskeletal consultation to RA diagnosis, and referral to RA diagnosis increased in the peri-COVID-19 period (IRR 1.11, 95%CI 1.07-1.15;IRR 1.23, 95%CI 1.17-1.30) and remained consistent in the post- COVID-19 (IRR 1.13, 95%CI 1.11-1.16;IRR 1.27, 95%CI 1.23-1.32) periods respectively, compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. Similarly, number of consultations between first musculoskeletal consultation and referral/RA diagnosis reduced significantly in the peri-COVID-19 (IRR 0.92, 95%CI 0.88-0.96) and post-COVID-19 (IRR 0.92, 95%CI 0.90-0.95) periods. No change was observed between first musculoskeletal consultation and first referral. Similar results were observed for IA but not for JIA. Conclusion Patients with RA/JIA onset during the pandemic may be yet to present or are currently transitioning through referral and diagnosis. Primary care clinicians should remain alert to possible IA diagnosis and consider fast-track referral pathways where indicated. Patients developing incident episodes of IA may display a prodrome of other musculoskeletal symptoms and conditions, which alone may not warrant referral but in combination require further investigation. Commissioners should be alert to these findings to allow for the appropriate planning and commissioning of services.