Machine Learning Approaches for Temporal and Spatio-Temporal Covid-19 Forecasting: A Brief Review and a Contribution

ABSTRACT

In December 2019 an outbreak of a new disease happened, in Wuhan city, China, in which the symptoms were very similar to pneumonia. The disease was attributed to SARS-CoV-2 as the infectious agent and it was called the new coronavirus or Covid-19. In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared a worldwide pandemic of the new coronavirus. We have already counted more than 110 million cases and almost 2.5 million deaths worldwide. In order to assist in decision-making to contain the disease, several scientists around the world have engaged in various efforts, and they have proposed a lot of systems and solutions for tracking, monitoring, and predicting confirmed cases and deaths from Covid-19. Mathematical models help to analyze and understand the evolution of the disease, but understanding the disease was not enough, it was necessary to understand the problem in a quantitative way to lead the decision-making during the pandemic. Several initiatives have made use of Artificial Intelligence, and models were designed using machine learning algorithms with features for temporal and spatio-temporal investigation and prediction of cases of Covid-19. Among the algorithms used are Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), Ecological Niche Models (ENMs), Long-Short Term Memory Networks (LSTM), linear regression, and others. And these had good results, and to analyze them, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Log Root Mean Squared Error (RMSLE), correlation coefficient, and others were used as metrics. Covid-19 presents a huge problem to public health worldwide, so it is of utmost importance to investigate it, and with these two approaches it is possible to track not only how the disease evolves but also to know which areas are at risk. And these solutions can help in supporting decision-making by health managers to make the best decisions for the disease that is in the outbreak. This chapter aims to present a literature review and a brief contribution to the use of machine learning methods for temporal and spatio-temporal prediction of Covid-19, using Brazil and its federative units as a case study. From canonical methods to deep networks and hybrid committee-based, approaches will be investigated. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.