Structure characteristics and development sustainability of municipal solid waste treatment in China

ABSTRACT

This study aims to analyze the development trend of municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment in China from 2011 to 2020, and provide insights into the challenges and opportunities of sustainable MSW management. Our analysis shows that MSW generation declined in 2020, which could be attributed to a combination of factors, including the low urban population growth rate, the implementation of the garbage classification policy, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also found that the shift from landfill to incineration is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, although there are still several structural problems, such as an imbalance in treatment capacity among regions and cities, and uncertainty about whether the increase in incineration treatment capacity can meet overall demand due to the high volume of MSW generation. Our analysis highlights the heavy dependence on government investment for MSW treatment mode change, which is difficult due to the expanding deficit between fiscal revenue and expenditure of local governments. Correlation coefficient analysis shows a significant positive correlation between the proportion of incineration and sanitation investment, and a significant negative correlation between the proportion of landfill treatment and sanitation investment. To address these challenges, we propose technological advancement and management optimization to reduce the cost of MSW treatment, as well as expansion of investment channels through green funds, taxation relief, and other means to promote high-quality and sustainable development of the MSW treatment industry. These changes could accelerate the transformation of China's MSW treatment industry from policy promotion-dependent to market-oriented sustainable operation.