Risk Perception Management Related to COVID-19: A Study of Scenario Planning in Cuba

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic is the most disastrous health event of the twenty-first century with significant impacts on the economy, institutions, organizations and people's well-being and lifestyle. Risk perception is a knowledge process that manifests itself in risk behavior and reflects people's experiences, beliefs and social influences. The management of risk perception is essential in contributing to people's protective behaviors in the presence of health risks. In Cuba, one of its significant effects is reflected in the psychology of individuals, despite policies to mitigate its consequences. Minimizing COVID-19 transmission requires the application of effective policies that contribute with adequate perceptions, depending on the risk factors. The goal of this research is to develop a system of actions that can contribute to the transition of a favorable scenario for the management of risk perception regarding COVID-19 in Cuba according to the new normality and through the use of a scenario planning methodology. The findings allow characterizing the current scenario and proposing actions and indicators in order to achieve the most favorable scenario for risk perception management related to COVID-19 from a geographic perspective. © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.