The Relationship between the COVID-19 Prevalence Trend and Transportation Trend in South Korea

ABSTRACT

Objective World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic on March 12th, 2020. Several studies indicate that these densely populated urban environments and the heavy dependence on traffic could increase the potential spread of COVID-19. This study investigated the association between changes in traffic volume and the spread of COVID-19 in South Korea. Methods This study analyzed the daily national traffic and traffic trend for 3 months from January 1st, 2020. Traffic data was measured by the 6,307 vehicle detection system (VDS). This study analyzed the traffic gap between 2019 and 2020. And non-linear regression was performed to analyze the change in traffic trend in 2020. The relationship between traffic and COVID-19 confirmed cases was analyzed using single linear regression. Results The mean daily nationwide in 2020 was 143,655,563 vehicles, which was 9.7% lower than the same period in 2019 (159,044,566 vehicles). All regions showed a decreasing trend for traffic in February, which shifted to an increasing trend from March. In Incheon, there only was a positive but insignificant (β = 43,146, p = .056) linear relationship with the increasing numbers of new confirmed cases associated with increased traffic. Conclusions New confirmed COVID-19 patients have been decreasing since March, while the traffic has been increasing. Particularly, the fact that traffic is increasing indicates greater contact between people, which in turn increases the risk of COVID-19 spread. Therefore, the government will need to devise suitable policies, such as total social distancing.