Predicted Effects of Stopping COVID-19 Lockdown on Italian Hospital Demand

ABSTRACT

Objective:Italy has been one of the first countries to implement mitigation measures to curb the COVID-19 pandemic. There is currently a debate on when and how such measures should be loosened.To forecast the demand for hospital ICU and non-ICU beds for COVID-19 patients from May-September, we developed two models, assuming a gradual easing of restrictions or an intermittent lockdown.Methods:We used a compartmental model to evaluate two scenarios A) an intermittent lockdown;B) a gradual relaxation of the lockdown. Predicted intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU demand was compared with the peak in hospital bed utilization observed in April 2020.Results:Under scenario A, while ICU demand will remain below the peak, the number of non-ICU will substantially rise and will exceed it (133%;95%CI 94-171). Under scenario B, a rise in ICU and non-ICU demand will start in July and will progressively increase over the summer 2020, reaching 95% (95%CI 71-121) and 237% (95%CI 191-282) of the April peak.Conclusions:Italian hospital demand is likely to remain high in the next months. If restrictions are reduced, planning for the next several months should consider an increase in healthcare resources to maintain surge capacity across the country.