The fiscal value of human lives lost from Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China

ABSTRACT

According to the WHO coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report 35, as of 24th February 2020, there was a total of 77,262 confirmed COVID-19 cases in China. That included 2595 deaths. The specific objective of this study was to estimate the fiscal value of human lives lost due to COVID-19 in China as of 24th February 2020. The deaths from COVID-19 had a discounted (at 3%) total fiscal value of Int$ 924,346,795 in China. Out of which, 63.2% was borne by people aged 25–49 years, 27.8% by people aged 50–64 years, and 9.0% by people aged 65 years and above. The average fiscal value per death was Int$ 356,203. Re-estimation of the economic model alternately with 5% and 10 discount rates led to a reduction in the expected total fiscal value by 21.3% and 50.4%, respectively. Furthermore, the re-estimation of the economic model using the world’s highest average life expectancy of 87.1 years (which is that of Japanese females), instead of the national life expectancy of 76.4 years, increased the total fiscal value by Int$ 229,456,430 (24.8%).