Increase in Covid-19 Cases and Case Fatality and Case Recovery Rates in Europe: A Cross Temporal Meta-Analysis

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The new coronavirus (COVID-19) infection reported by China in December 2019 has become a pandemic affecting the entire world in a few weeks. In this respect, it is crucial to determine case increase and case fatality and case recovery rates in order to control COVID-19. In this study, case increase, case fatality and case recovery rates of COVID-19 in 36 European countries were analyzed with meta-analysis method using data released by the health organizations and WHO. METHODS: The data were obtained from the website of health organizations of 36 European countries and the website of WHO until the date of May 11, 2020. The analyses were carried out on 1,744,704 COVID-19 diagnosed cases in 36 European countries. The case increase and case fatality and case recovery rates of COVID-19 were calculated using 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), single-arm meta-analysis, cross-temporal meta-analysis and meta-regression random effects model. RESULTS: The standardized case increase rate of COVID-19 is 5% (95% CI [0.040, 0.063]) and the average case increase rate in European countries has started to decline by around 3% (95% CI [0.047, 0.083]) weekly. The countries with the highest rate of case increase are Belgium, Sweden, Russia, the Netherlands and the UK. Although the case fatality rate of COVID-19 patients was 4.5% as of May 11 (95% CI [0.037-0.055]), this rate is 6.3% (95% CI [0.047, 0.083]) in standardized time (6(th) week). Case recovery rates of patients are 46% (95% CI [0.376-0.547]). CONCLUSION: This research presents important results regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Although the rate of increase in new COVID-19 cases has dropped, there is not much decline in case fatality rates and no increase in case recovery rates. The case fatality rate of COVID-19 in Europe was estimated to be in the range of 4-4.5% and minimum 4 weeks (As of May 11) are expected in order to have the figure below 1% in the country with an average case increase rate. Monitoring case fatality in Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden, and treatment successes in Germany and Austria play an utmost importance. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.