A Statistical Modeling of the Course of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak: A Comparative Analysis.
Asia Pac J Public Health
; 32(4): 157-160, 2020 05.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-378091
ABSTRACT
This study aims to provide both a model by using cumulative cases and cumulative death toll for SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) outbreak in four countries, China, Italy, South Korea, and Turkey, starting from the first diagnosis and to compare associated indicators. The most successful estimation was obtained from the cubic model with natural logarithm for China, Italy, South Korea, and Turkey. The success of the models was around 99%. However, differences began to emerge in China, Italy, and South Korea after the second week. Although the highest number of new cases per 1 million people in China was 9.8 on February 28, 2020; it was 108.4 on March 21, 2020, in Italy; and this was 16.6 on March 5, 2020, in South Korea. On the other hand, the number of new cases was 24.6 per 1 million people on March 27, 2020, in Turkey. The log-cubic model proposed in this study has been set forth to obtain successful results for aforementioned countries, as well as to estimate the course of the COVID-19 outbreak. Other factors such as climacteric factors and genetic differences, which may have an impact on viral spreading and transmission, would also have strengthened the model prediction capacity.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Betacoronavirus
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Asia Pac J Public Health
Journal subject:
Public Health
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
1010539520928180
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