Your browser doesn't support javascript.
Predicting Mortality Due to SARS-CoV-2: A Mechanistic Score Relating Obesity and Diabetes to COVID-19 Outcomes in Mexico.
Bello-Chavolla, Omar Yaxmehen; Bahena-López, Jessica Paola; Antonio-Villa, Neftali Eduardo; Vargas-Vázquez, Arsenio; González-Díaz, Armando; Márquez-Salinas, Alejandro; Fermín-Martínez, Carlos A; Naveja, J Jesús; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A.
  • Bello-Chavolla OY; Unidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Bahena-López JP; Division of Research, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Antonio-Villa NE; Plan de Estudios Comcinados en Medicina (PECEM), Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Vargas-Vázquez A; Unidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • González-Díaz A; Plan de Estudios Comcinados en Medicina (PECEM), Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Márquez-Salinas A; Unidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas, Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición Salvador Zubirán, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Fermín-Martínez CA; Plan de Estudios Comcinados en Medicina (PECEM), Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Naveja JJ; Centro de Estudios en Antropología, Facultad de Ciencias Políticas y Sociales, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico.
  • Aguilar-Salinas CA; Division of Research, Instituto Nacional de Geriatría, Mexico City, Mexico.
J Clin Endocrinol Metab ; 105(8)2020 08 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-437371
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND:

The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak poses a challenge to health care systems due to its high complication rates in patients with cardiometabolic diseases. Here, we identify risk factors and propose a clinical score to predict COVID-19 lethality, including specific factors for diabetes and obesity, and its role in improving risk prediction.

METHODS:

We obtained data of confirmed and negative COVID-19 cases and their demographic and health characteristics from the General Directorate of Epidemiology of the Mexican Ministry of Health. We investigated specific risk factors associated to COVID-19 positivity and mortality and explored the impact of diabetes and obesity on modifying COVID-19-related lethality. Finally, we built a clinical score to predict COVID-19 lethality.

RESULTS:

Among the 177 133 subjects at the time of writing this report (May 18, 2020), we observed 51 633 subjects with SARS-CoV-2 and 5,332 deaths. Risk factors for lethality in COVID-19 include early-onset diabetes, obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, advanced age, hypertension, immunosuppression, and chronic kidney disease (CKD); we observed that obesity mediates 49.5% of the effect of diabetes on COVID-19 lethality. Early-onset diabetes conferred an increased risk of hospitalization and obesity conferred an increased risk for intensive care unit admission and intubation. Our predictive score for COVID-19 lethality included age ≥ 65 years, diabetes, early-onset diabetes, obesity, age < 40 years, CKD, hypertension, and immunosuppression and significantly discriminates lethal from non-lethal COVID-19 cases (C-statistic = 0.823).

CONCLUSIONS:

Here, we propose a mechanistic approach to evaluate the risk for complications and lethality attributable to COVID-19, considering the effect of obesity and diabetes in Mexico. Our score offers a clinical tool for quick determination of high-risk susceptibility patients in a first-contact scenario.
Subject(s)
Keywords

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Diabetes Mellitus / Betacoronavirus / Obesity Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Mexico Language: English Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Clinem

Similar

MEDLINE

...
LILACS

LIS


Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Diabetes Mellitus / Betacoronavirus / Obesity Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Male / Middle aged Country/Region as subject: Mexico Language: English Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Clinem