Projecting demand for critical care beds during COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada.
CMAJ
; 192(19): E489-E496, 2020 05 11.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-46273
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Increasing numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Canada may create substantial demand for hospital admission and critical care. We evaluated the extent to which self-isolation of mildly ill people delays the peak of outbreaks and reduces the need for this care in each Canadian province.METHODS:
We developed a computational model and simulated scenarios for COVID-19 outbreaks within each province. Using estimates of COVID-19 characteristics, we projected the hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) bed requirements without self-isolation, assuming an average number of 2.5 secondary cases, and compared scenarios in which different proportions of mildly ill people practised self-isolation 24 hours after symptom onset.RESULTS:
Without self-isolation, the peak of outbreaks would occur in the first half of June, and an average of 569 ICU bed days per 10 000 population would be needed. When 20% of cases practised self-isolation, the peak was delayed by 2-4 weeks, and ICU bed requirement was reduced by 23.5% compared with no self-isolation. Increasing self-isolation to 40% reduced ICU use by 53.6% and delayed the peak of infection by an additional 2-4 weeks. Assuming current ICU bed occupancy rates above 80% and self-isolation of 40%, demand would still exceed available (unoccupied) ICU bed capacity.INTERPRETATION:
At the peak of COVID-19 outbreaks, the need for ICU beds will exceed the total number of ICU beds even with self-isolation at 40%. Our results show the coming challenge for the health care system in Canada and the potential role of self-isolation in reducing demand for hospital-based and ICU care.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Bed Occupancy
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Critical Care
/
Hospital Bed Capacity
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
CMAJ
Journal subject:
Medicine
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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